Predictive Risk Modeling to Identify Homeless Clients at Risk for Prioritizing Services Using Routinely Collected Data

For most homelessness service providers, the number of clients who are eligible for long-term housing outstrips the availability.This study uses a cohort of housing assessments taken from a mid-size county in the US and machine learning methods to train a Predictive Risk Model (PRM) that identifies clients who would experience multiple adversities in the future. The PRM outperforms the Vulnerability Index-Service Prioritization Decision Assistance Tool (VI-SPDAT) in flagging clients at the greatest risk of adversities. The proposed method can be readily used by any Continuum of Care (CoC) that holds electronic housing assessments and service records.